A year on, I can’t shake the feeling that the far-right are running the exact same playbook.

A party seeking to secure its youth vote without having done the political legwork to earn it is reckless.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer, right, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, left, chat during their meeting in London (Photo by Frank Augstein-WPA Pool/Getty Images)

During a visit to the UK today, Sir Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Frie…

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will announce a law change, one week after French President Emmanuel Macron also promised changes to combat illegal migration to the UK.

The Prime Minister has suspended four MPs from the Labour Party.

The move comes after a vote in Parliament over the planned – and controversial – welfare reforms earlier this month.

Sir Keir’s welfare bill passed by 335 votes to 260 after last-minute changes to the proposal to have it approved after uproar over the plans to cut Universal Credit and Pip payments.

Despite the changes, some MPs rebelled in the final vote, and they have now been suspended.

Which Labour MPs have been suspended?

The Labour leader has suspended three first-year MPs – Neil Duncan-Jordan, Brian Leishman and Chris Hinchliff – and one, Rachael Maskell, who has been the MP for York Central since 2015.

Mr Duncan-Jordan and Ms Leishman confirmed the suspension.

Mr Hinchliff’s suspension was first reported by The Times.

Why have they been suspended?

The suspension means the four have ‘lost the whip’ after they voted against the government’s planned welfare reforms on July 1.

MPs who belong to a party are expected to vote in Parliament as the party leadership desires.

The MPs are now expelled from the Labour Party as disciplinary action.

However, expelled politicians can continue as MPs, but they no longer have to follow the party line during voting.

Mr Duncan-Jordan, an MP for Poole, said after the news emerged: ‘Since being elected, I have consistently spoken up for my constituents on a range of issues, including most recently on cuts to disability benefits.

‘I understood this could come at a cost, but I couldn’t support making disabled people poorer.

‘Although I’ve been suspended from the Parliamentary Labour Party today, I’ve been part of the Labour and trade union movement for 40 years and remain as committed as ever to its values.’

Meanwhile, Mr Leishman, who represents Alloa and Grangemouth, said: ‘I wish to remain a Labour MP and deliver the positive change many voters are craving.

‘I have voted against the Government on issues because I want to effectively represent and be the voice for communities across Alloa and Grangemouth.

‘I firmly believe that it is not my duty as an MP to make people poorer, especially those that have suffered because of austerity and its dire consequences.’

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Readers react to Shattered Britain survey and discuss the death of democracy

The US President will arrive in the UK on September 17.

A new report lays bare just how disillusioned the UK has become with the current system.

The revelation came just before Starmer and Macron signed a historic new defence relationship.

Macron looked a little uncomfortable with his baffling choice of a three-piece suit as the temperature rose inside too.

Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have been deep in discussion over the past two days.

The welfare reforms have caused some controversy.

Scrapping legal rights by getting rid of EHCPs is looking at the SEND issue through the wrong end of the telescope. 

They have vowed to ‘beat the British Government in court’ again.

They have vowed to ‘beat the British Government in court’ again.

On May 22 2024, Rishi Sunak stood outside of Downing Street in the pouring rain and announced he was calling a General Election.

Six weeks later, Sir Keir Starmer pulled up in his car to No 10 on July 5. As he stepped out, the sun came out.

The metaphor was clear. In contrast to the bleak, miserable end to the Tories’ time in charge, here was a new leader promising brighter days ahead.

During his first speech, he told the nation: ‘If you voted for Labour yesterday, we will carry the responsibility of your trust, as we rebuild our country. 

‘But whether you voted Labour or not, in fact – especially if you did not, I say to you, directly, my government will serve you.’ 

Looking back at that day a year on, it might not be too hard to argue that optimistic idea about Starmer bringing a warm glow to the country was quite a pathetic fallacy.

Labour’s polling numbers have collapsed since that day, and the party is now consistently stuck several points behind Reform. The PM himself is doing only marginally better, with a net favourability rating of -34 according to YouGov.

On Tuesday, the government suffered its biggest ever rebellion despite gutting its flagship welfare bill. The following day, the Chancellor wept openly during PMQs.

By Thursday evening, one of Starmer’s MPs, Zarah Sultana, announced she was leaving the Labour party and would ‘co-lead the founding of a new party’ with the ex-Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn. He said discussions were ‘ongoing’ after the announcement.

Outlining her reasons for leaving the party, Sultana accused the Labour Government of failing to improve people’s lives, and claimed it ‘wants to make disabled people suffer’ in reference to ministers’ proposals to reform welfare – a claim that was rejected by Home Secretary Yvette Cooper.

So where did it all go so wrong?

A fateful speech

It’s impossible to pick a particular moment where the trouble started. But if we were going to have a shot regardless, polls wouldn’t be a bad place to start looking.

They seem to suggest Starmer’s approval rating falls off a bit of a cliff around the end of July 2024 – barely three weeks after he started his new job.

What was happening politically around the end of July? Well, one big thing happened on July 29: that was the day Rachel Reeves stood up in Parliament and declared a massive cut to the winter fuel payment.

In hindsight, it’s a little baffling. Starmer’s government was still defining itself to voters, trying to project an image about who they were and what they represented.

There’s an argument that the Chancellor was aiming to get the tough but necessary decisions out of the way as early as possible, so they would have faded to the back of voters’ minds by the next general election.

But clearly, first impressions matter. Despite the recent backtrack, in which the payment was returned to everyone receiving a pension who has an income below a £35,000 threshold, this might have been the moment many voters made up their mind about the PM and his ministers.

All-consuming black hole

And of course, the Winter Fuel Payment was not the only announcement in this vein. There was inheritance tax on farms, and the retention of the two-child benefit cap.

All these ‘tough decisions’ circled around something else mentioned for the first time in that July 29 speech: the ‘£22 billion black hole’ in the public finances that Reeves said she had found left over by the Conservatives.

Many of Labour’s woes in government can be traced back to this figure. According to the Parliamentary transcript Hansard, the phrase ‘£22 billion black hole’ has been used in the House of Commons no fewer than 287 times since last July, largely in the context of justifying unpopular choices.

Plenty of political goodwill has been spent on filling it but, as might be expected from a black hole, everything else has been sucked into it too.

Several of the government’s policies enjoy broad public support – charging VAT on private school fees to fund state education; closer alignment with the European Union; and expanding free school meals, for example.

But it’s the tricky decisions that the government says it must make to get the country on a firmer fiscal footing that really stick with people.

As a result, a year after the party’s landslide victory, the Labour government has found itself defined more by the things it didn’t want to have to do, than the things it did want to do.

This week, the sun was blazing again ahead of the first Starmiversary. But the Prime Minister may well have spent those days wondering how much longer it’ll be until the clouds clear for him.

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

For more stories like this, check our news page.

MP Zarah Sultana is spearheading a ‘people-powered campaign’.

Readers respond to Rachel Reeves getting teary during PMQ’s, roadblock in welfare reform and the summer of ’76.

Male tears are sincere. Female tears are a story, a scandal.

The Chancellor was making her first appearance in public since PMQs yesterday.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting said the NHS would need to ‘reform or die’.

The images prompted concern from across the political spectrum and from the markets.

Despite the latest big scary number, this is not a new phenomenon.

Despite the latest big scary number, this is not a new phenomenon.

Kemi Badenoch said the Chancellor looked ‘absolutely miserable’ at the session this afternoon.